So who’s going to win the Golden Boot? Let’s keep this short and sweet…
- Don’t feel you have to back the favourites – you might be tempted by double digit odds on the likes of Rooney, Villa and Messi but don’t forget that there’s a long and illustrious history of outsiders bagging the title of top scorer. Cast your mind back to Toto Schillachi in 1990, Hristo Stoichkov and Oleg Salenko winning jointly in 1994 and Davor Suker in 1998. Even Ronaldo and Klose could have been backed at more than 20-1 in the run up to 2002 and 2006 finals respectively.
- As obvious as it sounds, go for a player who’s going to get the chance to play in as many games as possible, i.e. make it through to the last 4 (as this will mean a game either in the final or the 3rd place play off). This will guarantee a maximum of 7 games in which to find the back of the net. Even when Germany thumped Saudi Arabia 8-0 in the group stages in 2002, they couldn’t do anything to stop Ronaldo taking the Golden Boot by scoring 2 more against them in the final.
- However, keep an eye out for a group with a soft team or two to give your pick the best chance for a good start. Brazil had Costa Rica and China to warm up against in 2002, and the Costa Ricans took more punishment from the Germans in 2006.
And where does all this leave us? Looking for a somewhat unfancied striker in a team that’s likely to make the last 4 who find themselves in a group with at least one whipping boy. Somewhat surprisingly given the season he’s just had at Man City, Carlos Tevez fits the bill nicely, and at 46s on Betfair represents excellent value, particularly alongside the one man strike force that is Lionel Messi who’ll enjoy running the Korean, Greek and Nigerian defences ragged.
Bets 4 & 5: Get £10 on Tevez to be top scorer @ 46 on Betfair, and back that up with another £10 for him to be in top 4 @ 12s
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